I be the first one to admit I’m a pessimist on the economy, but not even I’m this pessimistic:
Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.
Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains.
But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg.
Rosenberg calls current economic conditions “a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
“Such is human nature and nobody can be blamed for trying to be optimistic; however, in the money management business, we have a fiduciary responsibility to be as realistic as possible about the outlook for the economy and the market at all times,” he said.
Mr. Rosenberg’s argument it compelling, I’m not sure agree with him, but like I said I’m a pessimist on the economy. I’ve thought all along this so called recovery was more akin to a dead cat bounce than an actual meaningful sustained recovery… And that’s what the data seems to indicate. All the indicators I’m looking at, employment, housing, durable goods, and consumer confidence are pointing to anything but a recovery. Are we actually in a depression? I don’t know, but I think it’s safe to say this isn’t a garden variety recession.
- Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again – Wall Street Journal
- Asian markets continue retreat from risk – Financial Times
- U.S. deficit forecast masks true scope of problem – James Pethokoukis, Reuters
- Youth Unemployment Hits Record High – CNBC
- July New-home sales drop to record low 276,000 yearly rate – Market Watch
- Second Quarter GDP Growth Revised Downward – Wall Street Journal
- What Biden didn’t mention on stimulus – Associated Press
- The Most Fiscally Irresponsible Government in U.S. History – Mort Zuckerman, U.S. News
- Bad statistics for summer employment for youth – McClatchy