This is getting silly, it seems like every time new jobless claims rise the media uses words like “unexpected’ or “surprising” to describe the news… There’s nothing surprising or unexpected about this week’s jobless report, not after reports on plunging new home sales in May, and the sharp drop in consumer confidence.
Suffices to say and up tick in new jobless claims was entirely expected by anyone with half a brain… and that’s exactly we got:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of people filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits climbed 13,000 in the latest week to 472,000, indicating continued weakness in the labor market.
Although claims have fallen 22% from one year ago, they are up 4% since the start of 2010, according to data from the Labor Department. Weekly claims typically would have to fall below 400,000 to signify improved nationwide hiring trends.
Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to fall to 455,000. See our complete economic calendar and consensus forecast.
The four-week average of initial claims — a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number – rose by 3,250 to 466,500, the highest level in almost three months.
While claims tend to align with job growth over the longer term, the weekly data is prone to sharp fluctuations. A clearer picture of job growth will emerge Friday when the government releases its monthly employment report for June.
Tomorrow’s monthly unemployment report should be interesting, economists are reportedly expecting the economy will have added 110,000 jobs in June, excluding the departure of temporary Census workers from government payrolls. Personally, I’m kind of pessimistic about about those forecasts, most of today’s economic news today is discouraging… Manufacturing declined in June, so did construction spending, and pending home sales. All in all this is look more like a dead cat bounce than a recovery.
Ed’s got a great chart illustrating just how unexpected today’s news is over at Hot Air.
What say you: