If current polling is accurate you can add Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) and Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) to the list of vulnerable Democrats in 2010. The Las Vegas Review Journal reported last Sunday that Sen. Reid is trailing both likely Republican challengers in recent polls:
It’s the highest stakes ever for a Nevada election, and former boxer Sen. Harry Reid is on the ropes early. Either Republican Danny Tarkanian or Sue Lowden would knock out Reid in a general election, according to a recent poll of Nevada voters.
The results suggest the Democratic Senate majority leader will have to punch hard and often in order to retain his position as the most accomplished politician in state history, in terms of job status.
Nevadans favored Tarkanian over Reid 49 percent to 38 percent and Lowden over Reid 45 percent to 40 percent, according to the poll.
Ouch, anytime an incumbent polls below 50% he’s considered vulnerable, not necessarily beatable but vulnerable. When incumbent can barely muster 40% of the vote in a state he’s represented for 22 years he isn’t just vulnerable he’s political road kill.
Under normal circumstances I’d expect party leaders to suggest retirement but I can’t see that happening here… Democrats can’t afford the embarrassment of having a second Majority Leader booted from office by his own constituents so they’re going have to go to the mat for him and fight for his seat.
Reid isn’t the only Democrat showing weakness in recent polls The Hill reports that House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers may face a tough reelection fight as well:
House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers (D-Mich.) could face a tough reelection race in 2010, according to a new, independent poll released this weekend.
40 percent of Conyers’s constituents said he deserved reelection, according to a poll conducted earlier this month by the Lansing, Mich.-based Deno Noor Polling, in conjunction with the Rossman Group and Perricone Group.
44 percent of Detroiters represented by Conyers said they would prefer to elect someone else. 15 percent were unsure or didn’t know.
The 80-year-old Conyers has served in Congress since 1965, making him one of the longest-serving members of Congress still in office. He could face a challenging reelection, though, due to the conviction of his wife, Monica Conyers, for bribery charges incurred while she served as President Pro Tempore of the Detroit City Council.
If we take the poll numbers at face value Rep. Conyers is vulnerable… he’s undoubtedly been hurt by his wife’s bribery scandal, the collapse of the auto industry and his comments about not reading bills before voting on them. The real question isn’t whether he’s vulnerable, it’s whether Republicans can mount and effective challenge.