{"id":680,"date":"2008-10-06T22:30:17","date_gmt":"2008-10-07T02:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/?p=680"},"modified":"2008-10-06T22:30:17","modified_gmt":"2008-10-07T02:30:17","slug":"analyzing-the-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2008\/10\/06\/analyzing-the-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyzing the Polls"},"content":{"rendered":"

AJ Strata has an interesting analysis of recent polls<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Note the D-R-I split on \u201call voters\u201d is 43-36-28. Most polls are weighting their sample by party affiliation, not policy preference. With the Democrat Presidential Primary drawing huge crowds and lots of GOP cross-overs to fight off Obama I would not want to put my reputation on party ID being the definitive weighting factor.<\/p>\n

Look at the policy preference break down of Lib-Con-Mod, it is split \u00a023-37-36 – almost the REVERSE of the party ID break down. That means if you re-run the polls using policy preference as the weighting factor you could see the polls almost flip 180\u00b0! \u00a0Democrats are up by 7%, but Cons are up by 14% – twice the advantage<\/strong><\/em>!<\/p>\n

Even more interesting is the undecided poll. \u00a0In the Party ID view undecideds are split equally between Dem-Rep-Ind at 28-26-43. This would lead one to allocate undecideds or leaners basically down the middle between Obama and McCain since the difference left and right is a statistically insignificant 2%.<\/p>\n

But in the policy world view the picture is dramatically different. The Lib-Con-Mod mix is heavily tilted away from Obama\u2019s base with 18-32-47. Here we see very little opportunity for Obama to take the undecided voters. Now the imbalance is 2:1 in favor of McCain, which holds a statistically huge 14% advantage.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I don’t put much faith in polls to me they’re “manufactured news”… They’re just something for the talking heads to fill time with. Strata does raise in interesting question though, what if the polls are being weighted incorrectly?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AJ Strata has an interesting analysis of recent polls. Note the D-R-I split on \u201call voters\u201d is 43-36-28. Most polls are weighting their sample by party affiliation, not policy preference. With the Democrat Presidential Primary drawing huge crowds and lots of GOP cross-overs to fight off Obama I would not want to put my reputation […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[47,57,40,1372],"class_list":{"0":"post-680","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-politics","7":"tag-2008-elections","8":"tag-barack-obama","9":"tag-john-mccain","10":"tag-polls","11":"entry","12":"has-post-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pfpI7-aY","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":831,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2008\/10\/23\/pollster-media-polls-biased-against-republicans\/","url_meta":{"origin":680,"position":0},"title":"Pollster: Media Polls Biased Against Republicans","author":"Jeff","date":"October 23, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I don't put a lot faith in polls and this is why: Political polls conducted for most media organizations often are biased against Republicans, says Kellyanne Conway, one of the most respected GOP pollsters. As a result, Barack Obama\u2019s lead over John McCain probably is exaggerated and is contributing unfairly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":483,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2008\/09\/25\/poll-question-should-john-mccain-and-barack-obama-participate-in-the-first-presidential-debate-as-scheduled\/","url_meta":{"origin":680,"position":1},"title":"Poll Question: Should John McCain and Barack Obama participate in the first Presidential Debate as scheduled?","author":"Jeff","date":"September 25, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"[poll id=\"4\"]","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2003,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2009\/04\/24\/poll-question-how-would-you-rate-barack-obamas-first-100-days\/","url_meta":{"origin":680,"position":2},"title":"Poll Question: How Would You Rate Barack Obama’s First 100 Days?","author":"Jeff","date":"April 24, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"[poll id=\"13\"]","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3527,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/28\/poll-americans-dont-much-like-congressional-republicans\/","url_meta":{"origin":680,"position":3},"title":"Poll: American’s Don’t Much Like Congressional Republicans","author":"Jeff","date":"August 28, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"Tom Jenson, writing on Public Policy Polling's blog notes that Congressional Republicans aren't terribly popular Americans... or even their own base: Our last national generic ballot poll found the Republicans ahead 45-42 despite the fact that Congressional Republicans had a 24\/61 approval rating. Even among respondents who said they were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5640,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2014\/07\/25\/poll-67-say-america-is-more-divided-than-4-years-ago\/","url_meta":{"origin":680,"position":4},"title":"Poll: 67% say America is more divided than 4 years ago","author":"Jeff","date":"July 25, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From Rasmussen Reports: Voters strongly believe the United States is a more divided nation these days, and they think both sides are to blame. Most are also ready to do something about it at the ballot box in November. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Likely U.S. Voters say America is a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Culture"","block_context":{"text":"Culture","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/culture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":505,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2008\/09\/26\/poll-question-who-won-the-first-debate\/","url_meta":{"origin":680,"position":5},"title":"Poll Question: Who Won The First Debate","author":"Jeff","date":"September 26, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"[poll id=\"5\"] Overall I thought McCain won on points\u2026 Although it was closer than it should have been. McCain clearly won on foreign policy but on the economy it was at best a draw. McCain needs to drop the populist rhetoric and stand up for conservative economic principles... In particular\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Politics"","block_context":{"text":"Politics","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}