{"id":3518,"date":"2010-08-25T10:45:51","date_gmt":"2010-08-25T14:45:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/?p=3518"},"modified":"2010-08-28T14:08:09","modified_gmt":"2010-08-28T18:08:09","slug":"cnbc-economy-caught-in-depression-not-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/25\/cnbc-economy-caught-in-depression-not-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"CNBC: Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"

I be the first one to admit I’m a pessimist on the economy, but not even I’m this<\/a> pessimistic:<\/p>\n

Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.<\/p>\n

Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains.<\/p>\n

But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg.<\/p>\n

Rosenberg calls current economic conditions<\/a> <\/strong><\/strong>“a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”<\/p>\n

“Such is human nature and nobody can be blamed for trying to be optimistic; however, in the money management business, we have a fiduciary responsibility to be as realistic as possible about the outlook for the economy and the market at all times,” he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Mr. Rosenberg’s argument it compelling, I’m not sure agree with him, but like I said I’m a pessimist on the economy. I’ve thought all along this so called recovery was more akin to a dead cat bounce than an actual meaningful sustained recovery… And that’s what the data seems to indicate. All the indicators I’m looking at, employment<\/a>, housing<\/a>, durable goods<\/a>, and consumer confidence<\/a> are pointing to anything but a recovery. Are we actually in a depression? I don’t know, but I think it’s safe to say this isn’t a garden variety recession.<\/p>\n

Related<\/strong><\/p>\n