{"id":3202,"date":"2010-02-06T10:28:42","date_gmt":"2010-02-06T15:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/?p=3202"},"modified":"2010-02-18T09:21:59","modified_gmt":"2010-02-18T14:21:59","slug":"unemployment-rate-drops-to-9-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2010\/02\/06\/unemployment-rate-drops-to-9-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.7%"},"content":{"rendered":"

I was going to post this yesterday, but there was something about the numbers that just didn’t make sense to me so I decided to hold off until I could dig through the report.<\/p>\n

Anyway, the Associated Press got to use it’s favorite adverb, “unexpectedly<\/a>“, again today:<\/p>\n

The job market is lurching toward improvement. It just has a long way to go.<\/p>\n

The outlook for jobs became a bit less bleak Friday when the government released January’s unemployment rate showing an unexpected decline from 10 percent to 9.7 percent. It was the first drop in seven months.<\/p>\n

Still, the government now estimates 8.4 million jobs vanished in the Great Recession. And economists say the nation will be lucky to get back 1.5 million of them this year. They also warn it will take until the middle of the decade for the job market to return to normal.<\/p>\n

The economy is growing, and normally job creation would be strengthening. But the job market is weighed down by employers who remain slow to hire because consumers are not spending enough. Companies worry about their prospects once government stimulus aid fades. They also fret about possibly higher costs related to taxes or health care measures from Congress and statehouses.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Heh, I hate to break this to you folks at the AP, but this wasn’t unexpected if you’ve been watching the trends over the last couple of months it was foregone conclusion that the unemployment rate hold steady or decline.<\/p>\n

Why? For starters lets take a look at Table A-12<\/a> in the Household Survey, the number of long term unemployed, that is those who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, has been rising steadily for the last several months. For statistical reasons those people are no longer considered part of the workforce.<\/p>\n

Second take a look at Table B-1<\/a> in the Establishment Survey, the total number of jobs in the marketplace has dropped sharply from roughly 133 million in January 2009 to an estimated 129 million in January 2010… In fact if we look at the historical data the drop is even sharper… From 137 million in January 2008.<\/p>\n

Bottom line the decline in unemployment is the result of statistical manipulation not real job growth. In short if fewer jobs in the marketplace means you’re naturally going to have a lower percentage of those unemployed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was going to post this yesterday, but there was something about the numbers that just didn’t make sense to me so I decided to hold off until I could dig through the report. Anyway, the Associated Press got to use it’s favorite adverb, “unexpectedly“, again today: The job market is lurching toward improvement. It […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[26,7],"tags":[1363,706],"class_list":{"0":"post-3202","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-economy","7":"category-politics","8":"tag-economy","9":"tag-unemployment","10":"entry"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pfpI7-PE","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2813,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/02\/unemployment-climbs-to-9-8\/","url_meta":{"origin":3202,"position":0},"title":"Unemployment Climbs to 9.8%","author":"Jeff","date":"October 2, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"If there's a silver lining in the September Jobs report I can't find it: U.S. employers cut a deeper-than-expected 263,000 jobs in September, lifting the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent, according to a government report on Friday that fueled fears the weak labor market could undermine economic recovery. The Labor\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2578,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2009\/08\/08\/unemployment-rate-falls-to-9-4-sort-of\/","url_meta":{"origin":3202,"position":1},"title":"Unemployment Rate Falls to 9.4%… Sort of…","author":"Jeff","date":"August 8, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"From Reuters: The U.S. unemployment rate fell in July for the first time in 15 months as employers cut far fewer jobs than expected, providing the clearest sign yet that the economy was turning around. Employers shed 247,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department said Friday, the least in any\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4503,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2012\/07\/06\/awful-unemployment-remains-at-8-2-in-june-just-80000-jobs-added\/","url_meta":{"origin":3202,"position":2},"title":"Awful: Unemployment Remains At 8.2% in June; Just 80,000 Jobs Added","author":"Jeff","date":"July 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"From MarketWatch: The U.S. created just 80,000 jobs in June as hiring slowed dramatically in the second quarter, confirming that the economy has hit another rough patch. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2%, the Labor Department said Friday. The disappointing employment report adds to fresh worries about the U.S.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3156,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2010\/01\/08\/december-unemployment-holds-steady-at-10-percent\/","url_meta":{"origin":3202,"position":3},"title":"December Unemployment Holds Steady at 10 Percent","author":"Jeff","date":"January 8, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"I'm looking for good news in the December Jobs Report, but I can't find any... From Reuters: U.S. employers cut 85,000 jobs in December, confounding expectations the labor market was finally stabilizing and piling pressure on President Barack Obama to spur job growth. Unemployment, which held steady at 10 percent,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2452,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2009\/07\/02\/unemployment-climbs-to-9-5-percent\/","url_meta":{"origin":3202,"position":4},"title":"Unemployment Climbs to 9.5 Percent","author":"Jeff","date":"July 2, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Unemployment climbed to its highest level in 26 years rising to 9.5 percent in June. All told, 14.7 million people were unemployed in June: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers cut far more jobs than expected last month and the unemployment rate hit 9.5 percent, the highest in nearly 26 years,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2960,"url":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/2009\/11\/06\/ouch-unemployment-climbs-to-10-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":3202,"position":5},"title":"Ouch: Unemployment Climbs to 10.2%","author":"Jeff","date":"November 6, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Ouch, unemployment climbed to a 26 year high in October as as more than 558,000 Americans lost their jobs in October: In another sign that workers are being left out of the budding economic recovery, the U.S. unemployment rate climbed to 10.2% in October, topping the 10% mark for the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3202"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3202\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jasetaro.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}