WSJ: Obama’s Jobs Numbers Are Pure Fiction

William McGurn has must read Op Ed in today Wall Street Journal detailing the fiction of the Obama Administration’s jobs “saved or created” statistics:

Tony Fratto is envious.

Mr. Fratto was a colleague of mine in the Bush administration, and as a senior member of the White House communications shop, he knows just how difficult it can be to deal with a press corps skeptical about presidential economic claims. It now appears, however, that Mr. Fratto’s problem was that he simply lacked the magic words — jobs “saved or created.”

“Saved or created” has become the signature phrase for Barack Obama as he describes what his stimulus is doing for American jobs. His latest invocation came yesterday, when the president declared that the stimulus had already saved or created at least 150,000 American jobs — and announced he was ramping up some of the stimulus spending so he could “save or create” an additional 600,000 jobs this summer. These numbers come in the context of an earlier Obama promise that his recovery plan will “save or create three to four million jobs over the next two years.”

Mr. Fratto sees a double standard at play. “We would never have used a formula like ’save or create,’” he tells me. “To begin with, the number is pure fiction — the administration has no way to measure how many jobs are actually being ’saved.’ And if we had tried to use something this flimsy, the press would never have let us get away with it.”

Of course, the inability to measure Mr. Obama’s jobs formula is part of its attraction. Never mind that no one — not the Labor Department, not the Treasury, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics — actually measures “jobs saved.” As the New York Times delicately reports, Mr. Obama’s jobs claims are “based on macroeconomic estimates, not an actual counting of jobs.” Nice work if you can get away with it.

As Mr. McGurn points out there’s no way to verify Obama’s “saved or created” numbers, they’re just a guess. The reality is since Congress approved the stimulus a few months ago, our economy has lost nearly 1.6 million jobs and unemployment has climbed to 9.4%… and I suspect it’s going to go higher before we hit bottom.

Related

• SF Fed: Near 11 percent unemployment and a jobless recovery – James Pethokoukis

Unemployment Hits 9.4%

The unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent in May, its highest rate since July 1983, up from 8.9 percent in April:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. employers cut 345,000 jobs last month, the fewest since September and far less than forecast, according to a government report on Friday that was the most definitive evidence the economy’s severe weakness was diminishing.

However, the Labor Department said the unemployment rate raced to 9.4 percent, the highest since a matching rate in July 1983, from 8.9 percent in April. This reading beat the peak in the jobless rate during the 1973-1975 recession that lasted 16 months.

But it was both a surge in new labor force entrants and a drop in employment that pushed the jobless rate up a half-percentage point. The May report showed a jump of 350,00 in the labor force. In April, the increase was just 120,000.

March and April’s job losses were revised down to show smaller declines of 652,000 and 504,000, respectively, meaning 82,000 fewer jobs were lost in those months than previously reported.

Two possibilities:

1) If we take these numbers at face value it means the recession peaked two months ago in March. That means the Democrats massive stimulus package wasn’t needed as only 5% of stimulus funds have been spent so far.

In other words we can recall the stimulus and start winding down programs like the mortgage refinance and the public private partnership for toxic assets, because they simply aren’t needed.

2) The numbers are misleading and we shouldn’t take them at face value… I suspect we’ll see a large uptick in new unemployment claims in June as public sector layoffs in California and in the auto industry start to gain traction.

I don’t think we’re anywhere near bottom yet… I suspect we’ll see unemployment well above 10% and U-6 above 20% before we hit bottom.

Holy Crap: $12.8 Trillion Spent, Lent or Committed???

From Bloomberg News:

March 31 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion, an amount that approaches the value of everything produced in the country last year, to stem the longest recession since the 1930s.

New pledges from the Fed, the Treasury Department and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. include $1 trillion for the Public-Private Investment Program, designed to help investors buy distressed loans and other assets from U.S. banks. The money works out to $42,105 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. and 14 times the $899.8 billion of currency in circulation. The nation’s gross domestic product was $14.2 trillion in 2008.

I don’t know what’s more frightening, that our government and the Federal Reserve have spent, lent or committed $12.8 trillion or that they want to spend more?

Stimulus Bill’s Healthcare Provisions Hazardous to Your Health

Buried in amongst all the questionable spending and policy provision of the democrats Stimulus plan is what amounts to a socialized medicine Trojan Horse.

The bill calls for, among other things, the creation of a new government bureaucracy, called the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology. The goal of the new bureaucracy  is to reduce costs by monitoring treatments and to “guide” your doctor is doing what the federal government deems appropriate and cost effective.

Betsy McCaughey goes over the bill’s healthcare provisions with a fine-tooth comb in Bloomberg.com Op Ed:

Republican Senators are questioning whether President Barack Obama’s stimulus bill contains the right mix of tax breaks and cash infusions to jump-start the economy.

Tragically, no one from either party is objecting to the health provisions slipped in without discussion. These provisions reflect the handiwork of Tom Daschle, until recently the nominee to head the Health and Human Services Department.

Senators should read these provisions and vote against them because they are dangerous to your health. (Page numbers refer to H.R. 1 EH, pdf version).

The bill’s health rules will affect “every individual in the United States” (445, 454, 479). Your medical treatments will be tracked electronically by a federal system. Having electronic medical records at your fingertips, easily transferred to a hospital, is beneficial. It will help avoid duplicate tests and errors.

But the bill goes further. One new bureaucracy, the National Coordinator of Health Information Technology, will monitor treatments to make sure your doctor is doing what the federal government deems appropriate and cost effective. The goal is to reduce costs and “guide” your doctor’s decisions (442, 446). These provisions in the stimulus bill are virtually identical to what Daschle prescribed in his 2008 book, “Critical: What We Can Do About the Health-Care Crisis.” According to Daschle, doctors have to give up autonomy and “learn to operate less like solo practitioners.” Read the rest…

On a related note Nadeem Esmail examines the problems with socialized medicine in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal:

President Obama and Congressional Democrats are inching the U.S. toward government-run health insurance. Last week’s expansion of Schip — the State Children’s Health Insurance Program — is a first step. Before proceeding further, here’s a suggestion: Look at Canada’s experience.

Health-care resources are not unlimited in any country, even rich ones like Canada and the U.S., and must be rationed either by price or time. When individuals bear no direct responsibility for paying for their care, as in Canada, that care is rationed by waiting.

Canadians often wait months or even years for necessary care. For some, the status quo has become so dire that they have turned to the courts for recourse. Several cases currently before provincial courts provide studies in what Americans could expect from government-run health insurance.

In Ontario, Lindsay McCreith was suffering from headaches and seizures yet faced a four and a half month wait for an MRI scan in January of 2006. Deciding that the wait was untenable, Mr. McCreith did what a lot of Canadians do: He went south, and paid for an MRI scan across the border in Buffalo. The MRI revealed a malignant brain tumor.

Ontario’s government system still refused to provide timely treatment, offering instead a months-long wait for surgery. In the end, Mr. McCreith returned to Buffalo and paid for surgery that may have saved his life. He’s challenging Ontario’s government-run monopoly health-insurance system, claiming it violates the right to life and security of the person guaranteed by the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Read the rest…

It’s not enough that these idiots our mortgaging our future and saddling our children with debts they can’t replay… They’re trying to destroy our healthcare system, which while it may not be perfect is a hell of a lot better than the socialized, government run system they seem to be pushing us toward.

Smoot-Hawley Rides Again???

The Washington Post has a detailed report on protectionist language in the Democrat’s pork laden stimulus bill that could trigger a trade war:

The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package.

A Senate version, yet to be acted upon, goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods.

Proponents of expanding the “Buy American” provisions enacted during the Great Depression, including steel and iron manufacturers and labor unions, argue that it is the only way to ensure that the stimulus creates jobs at home and not overseas.

Opponents, including some of the biggest blue-chip names in American industry, say it amounts to a declaration of war against free trade. That, they say, could spark retaliation from abroad against U.S. companies and exacerbate the global financial crisis.

The provisions also confront President Obama with his first test on trade policy. He must weigh the potential consequences of U.S. protectionism against the appealing slogan of “Buy American” and the jobs argument.

The administration has not addressed the issue publicly, and sources close to the issue said it appears that a response is still being formulated.

Sweet Jesus, these idiots are dangerous… Never mind the long-term damage that this pork laden train wreck of a spending bill could do to the American economy, the protectionist language in this thing could trigger trade war that would bring the global economy crashing down too.

By loading the stimulus bill with “Buy American” clauses that will shut out foreign producers of steel and iron Democratic protectionists  have esscentially recreated the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act that helped set the stage for the Great Depression.

House Republicans Hold the Line

The Democrats pork laden “stimulus” bill passed the House 244-188… Republicans held the line not one them voted for it.

11 Democrats joined 177 Republicans in voting against it.

It’s about time Republicans showed a little testicular fortitude.

Now it’s on to the Senate… What are the odds the Republicans there will hold the line?

WSJ: You Won’t Believe What’s in That Stimulus Bill

Stimulus plan my ass:

In selling the plan, President Obama has said this bill will make “dramatic investments to revive our flagging economy.” Well, you be the judge. Some $30 billion, or less than 5% of the spending in the bill, is for fixing bridges or other highway projects. There’s another $40 billion for broadband and electric grid development, airports and clean water projects that are arguably worthwhile priorities.

Add the roughly $20 billion for business tax cuts, and by our estimate only $90 billion out of $825 billion, or about 12 cents of every $1, is for something that can plausibly be considered a growth stimulus. And even many of these projects aren’t likely to help the economy immediately. As Peter Orszag, the President’s new budget director, told Congress a year ago, “even those [public works] that are ‘on the shelf’ generally cannot be undertaken quickly enough to provide timely stimulus to the economy.”

Most of the rest of this project spending will go to such things as renewable energy funding ($8 billion) or mass transit ($6 billion) that have a low or negative return on investment. Most urban transit systems are so badly managed that their fares cover less than half of their costs. However, the people who operate these systems belong to public-employee unions that are campaign contributors to . . . guess which party?

If President Obama or the Democrats in Congress were really interested in getting the economy moving again they being about commonsense measures to free up capital. No amount of government spending is going to the that… Drastically reducing or suspending capital gains taxes for couple of years and cutting the corporate tax rate would have a far more dramatic and immediate effect than the Democrats so called stimulus bill.

We can’t spend are way out of a recession no amount of government bailouts or stimulus packages are going to change that, in fact they may make things worse.

House Republicans Ready to Walk Away From Stimulus Negotiations?

The Politico is reporting that House Republicans Leader John Boehner and Whip Eric Cantor are urging caucus members to oppose the Democrats pork laden economic stimulus bill when it comes to the floor on Wednesday.

President Barack Obama is coming to the Capitol this afternoon to curry favor with congressional Republicans. But it appears GOP leaders have already made up their minds to oppose his $825 billion stimulus plan.

House Republican Leader John A. Boehner and his No. 2, Whip Eric Cantor, told their rank-and-file members Tuesday morning during a closed-door meeting to oppose the bill when it comes to the floor Wednesday, according to an aide familiar with the discussion. Boehner told members that he’s voting against the stimulus, and Cantor told the assembled Republicans that there wasn’t any reason for them to support the measure, according to another person in the room. Cantor and his whip team are going to urge GOP members to oppose it.

In a nod to the president, Boehner did point out that this is the third time that Obama has met with Republican leaders, compared with the zero meetings they’ve held with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — a now-familiar refrain from Republicans in the House. But Obama’s diplomacy clearly isn’t buying any votes yet.

This pre-meeting bluster should dampen the mood for an early afternoon meeting with the president, who is making the trek to hear Republicans’ input on the legislation before Wednesday’s vote. Once Obama is done with House Republicans, he will cross the Capitol to join the Senate Republican Conference lunch to pitch them on the stimulus.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said on NBC’s “Today” show Tuesday morning that Democrats in Congress are “drifting away” from Obama’s preferred stimulus plan, which was supposed to include 40 percent tax cuts and be free of earmarks.

Lets hope they have the courage to follow through and oppose this pig… The truth Democrats don’t need Republicans to pass the bill they have the votes to do it on their own. They need, or I should say want, Republican support for political cover that’s all.

On a related note Michele Malkin has the details on the latest Congressional Budget Office report on the stimulus bill. In short it’ll increase budget deficits and the infrastructure spending will take years to kick in.

Crash & Burn: Harry Reid’s $56 Billion Stimulus/Oil Shale Ban Bill Augers In.

Reuters is reporting that Harry Reid’s $56.2 Billion economic stimulus/oil shale ban bill has failed in the Senate:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Senate on Friday blocked a $56.2 billion economic stimulus package that would have extended unemployment benefits, increased food aid and funded new construction projects to create jobs.

The 52-42 vote fell short of the 60 votes needed in the 100-member Senate for Democrats to clear a Republican procedural hurdle and move toward passage of the bill, which backers said would give the ailing U.S. economy a needed boost.

The House of Representatives plans to consider a slightly different stimulus package as soon as Friday afternoon but chances of any stimulus bill becoming law appear slim as the White House has threatened a veto.

The bill would have kept in place a ban on development of domestic oil shale deposits that expires next week.

The Democratic-controlled Congress passed a $168 billion stimulus package in January that relied mostly on tax rebates to spark consumer spending.

While that measure has been credited with contributing to economic growth, consumers have been hurt by rising food and energy prices, a higher unemployment rate and continued home foreclosures.

Democrats said the second attempt would help struggling consumers at a time when Congress is considering an unpopular $700 billion Wall Street bailout shortly before the November 4 presidential and congressional elections.

“What about the honest, hard-working, play-by-the-rule citizens at the bottom of this pyramid left in the ruins after years of mismanagement and outright malpractice by the titans of the financial industry?” said Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.

Republicans said they did not have time to review the spending measures properly and the White House said the increased spending could lead to higher taxes or deficits.

Update (H/T: Michelle Malkin): The house votes this afternoon… Call your Representative and urge him or her to hold the line: (202) 224-3121.