Election Day 2009: Results and Analysis

Whew what a night… I was up until about 1:00 a.m. this morning tracking results and scribbling down various thoughts on yesterday’s elections.

First, I’m not sure how much we can or should read into the results one thing is clear from the exit polling though: the economy is the number one concern of voters.

Second, all in all Republicans did pretty well yesterday. They won governorships in Virginia and New Jersey… states that President Barack Obama won by wide margins last year. And they came closer than any sane person would have thought possible in California’s 10 Congressional District were a relative unknown named David Harmer came within 11 points of John Garamendi, the state’s Lieutenant Governor… Republicans have lost CA-10 by and average 37 points in the last 4 congressional elections. That alone should make Democrats a bit nervous!

Virginia and New Jersey

Barack Obama beat McCain in Virginia by 13 points last year; this year Bob McDonnell won it by 17. Republicans swept the statewide races winning Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General by wide margins. They’re also poised to gain a half dozen seats in the state legislature. Lets not forget Tim Kaine, the current Virginia governor  is also Democratic National Committee chairman… A post he was put into in part to help consolidate Democratic gains in the state.

As bad as the loss in Virginia was things are even worse in New Jersey, where Barack Obama beat John McCain by 15 points last year. New Jersey is one of the bluest, blue states in the nation, republicans haven’t won there in more than a decade. And yet despite considerable support for the incumbent governor, John Corzine, from both the President and Vice President Chris Christie won the state by 4 points.

I wouldn’t go so far as to call the  New Jersey governors race a referendum on Barack Obama, though I think safe to say the mystique is gone… Barack Obama invested both his prestige and a fair amount of political capital there and the Democrats lost. That should make Democrats from moderate or conservative congressional districts in other states a bit nervous about aligning themselves to closely with the President agenda… After all if they fall behind in their re-election bids the President’s support may not be able to drag them across the finish line.

NY-23

What mess… The special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional district was a complete Charlie Fox Trot from the start. Many of us had hoped that Doug Hoffman would be able to pull off a miracle yesterday and he came damn close to doing it… and given where the race was three weeks ago I suppose you could argue, as Erick Erickson does, that yesterdays results are a moral victory for Conservatives.

What went wrong? Lets start with choice of Dede Scozzafava, from all reports she’s a good woman but her positions on the issues and her voting record in the state legislature didn’t endear he to grassroots activists. The local Republican Party bosses who hand picked her should have realized that and chosen someone with a more moderate record. Second, third party campaigns are always risky propositions and Doug Hoffman did far better than anyone could have expected. Third, Ms. Scozzafava’s decision to withdraw from the race and endorse Democrat Bill Owens appears to have swung the election his way… Owens beat Hoffman in the areas where Ms. Scozzafava’s support had been the strongest.

On the bright side Republicans have a chance to win back the seat in next year’s mid term elections… Assuming they rally around a better candidate who shares the core principles of limited government and fiscal conservatism.

The bottom line is NY-23 may turn out be a good loss if it shakes up the Republican Party Establishment and forces them embrace core conservative principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility.

Related

• The Obama magic has faded – Glenn Reyolds, New York Post
• GOP Gets Some Love – Wall Street Journal
• Contests serve as warning to Democrats: It’s not 2008 anymore – Washington Post
• Independents fuel GOP victories in Va., N.J. – Washhington Times
• THE INFLUENCE GAME: Liberals targeting moderates – Associated Press
• The Conservative Victory in New York – Kathryn Jean Lopez, The Corner
• The GOP elite’s $1 million object lesson — and the message of NY-23 – Michelle Malkin
• The top five lessons from yesterday – Power Line

Election Day: November 3, 2009

I wanted to post this earlier but I suffered a bout of “connectile dysfunction” this morning and this is the first chance I’ve had to post… Get out and Vote! Preferably for the conservative candidate of your choice, but I digress.

The bulk of our attention has been focused on races New York, New Jersey and Virginia but the race to watch may turn out to be the special election to replace Ellen Tauscher in California’s 10th Congressional district. I’ll confess I haven’t been paying close attention but I’ve been hearing rumblings that the race between Republican David Harmer and Democrat Lt Gov. John Garamendi may turn out to be  a lot closer than anyone expects.

California’s 10th Congressional district is just about as blue as blue can get… Pres, Obama defeated John McCain by a 64-33 margin there in 2008. Ellen Tauscher’s average margin of victory in the last four Congressional races there  has been 37 points. If David Harmer can get within even single digits of John Garamendi it’ll be shocker, if he wins it’ll be shot heard around the world moment.

Ed Morrissey and Moe Lane have more on the CA-10 race  here and here. Michelle Malkin has an Election Day primer and a little preemptive pushback against the soundbite media spin here and Erick Erickson has notes on what to watch for once the polls close in the NY-23 race.

Related

• Republicans Are Poised for Gains in Key Elections – Wall Street Journal
• Tuesday’s Races an Early Test of Obama’s Political Influence – CNSNews.com
• Uncivil War: Conservatives to challenge a dozen GOP candidates – Politico
• 45% for Obama, 49% Against – If Election Were Held Right Now – Rasmussen Reports

NY-23: Scozzafava Endorses Owens

Can you hear us now? If this doesn’t prove the point that grassroots conservatives were making about Dede Scozzafava all along nothing will:

One day after she suspended her own campaign and declined to publicly endorse either of her opponents, Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava has formally announced her support for Democratic candidate Bill Owens.

“Since beginning my campaign, I have told you that this election is not about me; it’s about the people of this District,” Scozzafava wrote in an e-mail sent to supporters this afternoon.
“It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.”

“It’s not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh’s lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region.”

I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.”

“In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.”

“Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There’s too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.”

I wish I could say I was surprised by her decision but I’m not… from all reports Dede Scozzafava is liberal big government republican who is even more of progressive than the democrat she’s endorsed.

Grassroots conservatives were right to question the decision of Republican Party bosses who hand picked Ms. Scozzafava. Her decision to endorse Mr. Owens, the Democrat, proves she was the wrong candidate… The conventional wisdom says this should be a blow to Mr. Hoffman’s campaign, but I’m not sure the conventional wisdom applies here.Mr. Hoffman’s entire campaign has been a long shot that simple that he’s made it to this point turn the conventional wisdom on its ear.

The bottom line is the Republican Party isn’t win elections by embracing bland me-too Republicanism, it needs to draw vibrant, principled distinctions between itself and Democrats. To quote Sarah Palin, Political parties must stand for something.

We’ve been in this before and we know the road back… as  Gov. Palin explained on her Facebook page Thursday night “When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of “blurring the lines” between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections.”

Mr. Reagan was, unfortunately, the Republican Party establishment of today is no more interested in principled conservatism than it was in the 1970s… They were never comfortable with Reagan, they too believed that the path out of the wilderness was paved with bland me-too Republicanism… It was the grassroots who embraced Mr. Reagan and brought about the Reagan Revolution. And as we seeing in New York and Virgina it’s grassroots who are again shunning the party establishment and driving a new conservative revolution.

NY-23: Scozzafava Quits!

Dede Scozzafava, the hand-picked choice of the New York state GOP has suspended her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and is releasing all her supporters:

Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.

The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate.

“Today, I again seek to act for the good of our community,” Ms. Scozzafava wrote in a letter to friends and supporters. “It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations.”

Assemblywoman Scozzafava’s announcement comes close on the heels of a new Siena Research Institute poll (PDF) that shows her badly trailing both Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman… In recent weeks the three-way race to  replace Republican Rep. John McHugh, who was appointed Secretary of the Army by President Obama in June, has become a closely fought two man race between Hoffman and Owens.

Ms. Scozzafava was the hand picked choice of 23rd District’s 11 Republican county chairmen. According to a Wall Street Journal report she was chosen this summer when the county chairmen gathered at a pizzeria in Potsdam to pick a nominee. They were reportedly looking for someone with name recognition who could prevail in a shortened campaign. At the time Ms. Scozzafava, a former small-town mayor who has served for a decade in the state legislature, seemed the right choice.

As it turns out Ms. Scozzafava was the wrong choice… The Republican Party bosses who passed over Doug Hoffman to choose Ms. Scozzafava have some explaining to do.

H/T : The Other McCain and Hot Air.

Related

• Republican Scozzafava Suspends New York Congressional Campaign – Fox News
• GOP Rift Bared in New York – Wall Street Journal

Dede Scozzafava? What the Heck Were Republicans Thinking???

I have to confess the November 3rd special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district wasn’t even on my radar until I read this Wall Street Journal article… Since then I’ve been keeping a close on the race between erstwhile Republican Dede Scozzafava, Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

I can’t for the life of me understand why Republican Party bosses selected Scozzafava, a pro-abortion, pro-union, ACORN backed, Working Families Party-endorsed, tax and spend big government liberal who has more in common with democrats than she does the GOP’s conservative base… Particularly when a viable conservative candidate was available.

Regardless of her stance on the issues Scozzafava’s bumbled encounter with John McCormack of The Weekly Standard ought to doom her candidacy.

Police questioned a reporter from a conservative publication after receiving a call that he harassed a Republican candidate for Congress who refused to answer his questions about her positions on tax and health issues.

“I don’t believe it ever escalated to anything that would ever be classified as an emergency,” Fredenburg said.

No charges were filed against McCormack.

<…>

In the audio recording of the reporter’s questioning played for The Associated Press by McCormack, the reporter didn’t raise his voice, but repeated his unanswered questions several times, including one about abortion.

“I never screamed, I never yelled, I never shouted,” he said. “My voice was only loud enough so she could hear my questions.”

In a statement released Tuesday to the blog Politico, Scozzafava’s campaign said the reporter “repeatedly screamed questions (in-your-face-style),” but later issued a statement deleting the accusation.

Bottom line Scozzafava either couldn’t or wouldn’t answer McCormack’s questions and called the police to save her from a report… A call the police chief effectively says was unjustified.

The situation in New York’s 23rd congressional district is emblematic of the problems facing the GOP. Republicans didn’t the 2006 and 2008 elections because they were to conservative, they lost because they abandoned traditional conservative principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility… Over the last decade they morphed from the party of Reagan into the big spending, big government party of George W. Bush.

By choosing Dede Scozzafava as their candidate Republican Party bosses have demonstrated they still don’t get it… If Republicans want to win elections they need to draw vibrant contrasts between themselves and Democrats, traditional conservative principles still resonate with the American people… Doug Hoffman is a conservative, Dede Scozzafava isn’t… Michelle Malkin sums things up pretty well:

One thing is guaranteed at the conclusion of the NY-23 special congressional election: The Beltway Republicans who endorsed radical leftist Dede Scozzafava are going to have indelible egg stains on their faces. And GOP establishment fund-raising organizations will be the poorer for it.

Related

• The GOP’s New York Fiasco – Wall Street Journal
• NY-23: Can Doug Hoffman Win? – Washington Post
• Scozzafava Calls the Cops – The Weekly Standard

Ouch: New York Gov. Paterson Blasts Pres. Obama

The feud between New York Governor David Paterson and the White House took a turn for the worse today with Gov. Patterson essentially telling reporters at Columbia University that Obama’s just cranky because he hasn’t accomplished jack (emphasis mine):

I understand the president’s concern, but I understand the concern of staff members at the White House. If you look at it from their perspective, they haven’t exactly been able to govern in the first year of their administration the way other administrations have, where you would theoretically have a period in which the new administration is allowed to pass some of the needed legislation.

Every state accepted stimulus money – some said they weren’t, but all accepted stimulus money – it was shocking that the vote on the stimulus money for the ARRA went along party lines. Here, with the healthcare legislation, they’re talking about negotiating to get one Republican senator to vote with them – they can’t get one Republican?

It’s not them, it just seems to be the point of view that: what we’re gonna do, in the middle of a recession – and it’s a good thing that neither of the political parties were thinking of doing this in the Great Depression – but in the middle of the recession is: ‘we’re going to leave off, sit around, and blame the other side.’ See, it’s all “their fault.”

So – from their perspective, losing any exec seats, losing any Cong. Seats, losing any seats in the State Senate is very important. I think that you see in order to accomplish their healthcare plan, their energy plan, the other ideas that they have for America that really are transformative – they’ve had to look at who is going to be voting, who can help them. So I don’t have a problem with the fact that they would look to different states to try to get that assistance.

Ouch, as much as it pains me to defend Pres. Obama he accomplished a little more than Gov. Paterson is giving him credit for. Sure, his signature issues, health care reform and cap and trade, are wallowing in Congress but he has had some legislative success.

Allahpundit thinks Gov. Paterson’s remarks are a dig at Republicans more they are at Pres. Obama:

As much as it grieves me to defend The One, (a) is this really a knock on him? It sounds like Paterson’s blaming congressional turmoil on the GOP’s recalcitrance, “party of no” and all that jazz. If he wanted to rub Obama’s face in the deadlock, he would have knocked him for not having a strong enough hold on his own party to iron out a compromise between Blue Dogs and progressives.

He may be right but you could also argue that it’s a dig at the President for acting more like the Salesman in Chief than the Commander in Chief. Pres. Obama has much of his term traveling around the country trying to sell his agenda to an increasingly skeptical public rather then working with Congressional leaders to craft a commonsense health care reform plan that could win broad bipartisan support. At some point the President has to stop selling and start leading. Right now he’s still campaigning.

Regardless one can hardly blame the President and his advisers for trying to nudge Gov. Paterson toward the exit… Simply put he’s an electoral disaster. Think I’m joking? Just take a look at the polling, if New York state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is the Democratic nominee for governor next year, he beats former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by 13 points. If Paterson’s the nominee, Giuliani wins by 17 points… In a  head to head in primary match-up, Cuomo crushes Paterson by 46 points.

Breaking: New York Residences Raided in Terrorism Probe

Not a lot of details yet but the Associated Press is reporting that law enforcement agents have conducted raids related to a terrorism investigation in New York City:

Law enforcement agents raided residences in New York City on Monday as part of a terrorism investigation, and began briefing Congress about the probe.

New York Police Department spokesman Paul Browne confirmed that searches were conducted in the borough of Queens by agents of a joint terrorism task force. He would not discuss the matter further.

Separately, federal authorities started briefing a series of senior lawmakers in Congress about the case.

CBSNews adds a few additional details but information is still sketch at this point.

WCBS TV’s John Slattery reports the federal search warrant spelled out all manner of possible bomb-making components, including powders, gels, TNT, and fuses.

Building resident Assad Niazi told WCBS, “I don’t know [the other residents]. They are roommates – they go to work in the morning, and at night they come back.”

Updates as new details emerge.

Update (8:45 p.m.): Reuters is reporting that the NYPD and FBI raided at least apartments in Queens early this morning one of which was shared by five Afghan men:

New York City police and the FBI raided homes in the borough of Queens early on Monday as part of an investigation into suspected terrorism, focusing on one man who has been under surveillance, officials said.

Authorities searched at least two apartments including one shared by five Afghan men, taking some of them in for questioning, said one man who was questioned.

Members of U.S. Congress briefed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation said there was no imminent danger.

“There was nothing imminent, and they are very good now at tracking potentially dangerous actions and this was preventive,” said Charles Schumer, a U.S. Senator from New York who was among those briefed by FBI officials.

A man who identified himself as Amanullah Akbar, a 30-year-old taxi driver, said the FBI raided the apartment he shares with four other Afghan men at 2:30 a.m. (1630 GMT)

He was brought in for questioning and released and said he had no idea why his home was targeted, adding that he believed one of his roommates was arrested.

According to news reports the focus appears to be on one man who was being watched, authorities grew concerned as he met with people in Queens over the weekend and applied for search warrants late yesterday… The agents were apparently searching for all manner of possible bomb-making components, including powders, gels, TNT, and fuses.

Update II (9:10 p.m.): The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the individual at the center of the investigation may have been trying to obtain materials that could have been used in making a chemical, biological or radiological device:

Authorities executed search warrants and seized evidence early Monday morning at locations in the Queens borough of New York City as part of a terrorism investigation, according to a senior official familiar with the case.

This person said some counterterrorism officials were concerned that the individual at the center of the investigation may have had access to, or an interest in acquiring, materials that could be used for a chemical, biological or radiological device. One aspect of the probe involves whether the person had some contact or connections with suspicious individuals overseas, the official said. He stressed that the investigation was still at its earliest stages.

No wonder they were briefing Congress.

Remembrance: September 11, 2001

It’s it hard to believe that it was eight years ago today that the world stopped turning… Every moment of that day is burned indelibly into my memory, every site, every sound, every smell, it’s all so fresh… It still seems like it was just yesterday.

Where were you when the world stopped turning?

Congressman Eric Massa: I Will Vote Against the Interests of My District

Sen. Tom Coburn is right, American’s have lost faith in their government and I can’t think of a better example of why than the attitude displayed by Congressman Eric Massa of New York.

Rep. Massa met with an intimate group of Netroots activists during their annual Netroots Nation gathering in Pittsburgh this past weekend reiterated his support and promised the he would  “… vote adamantly against the interests of my district if I actually think what I am doing is going to be helpful.” In a broad sense I don’t have a problem with that, politicians aren’t supposedly to be automatons who blindly follow public opinion. George W. Bush, for example, ignored broad public opposition to order implementation of the surge strategy in Iraq. And it appears he was right to do so.

The problem here is that when you take Rep. Massa’s remarks in context with remarks by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid calling opponents of health care reform “un-American” and/or an “Evil mob” you’re left with a very frightening impression… You’re left with the impression that our elected leaders have forgotten that they were elected to represent we the people, you are left with the impression that they have forgotten they are our  representatives  not are rulers.

Thomas Jefferson said “When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty.” We have come to a point were a broad swath of Americans have lost faith in their government… Remarks like those of Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Reid and Rep. Massa’s only serve to reinforce the belief that our elected leaders no longer respect we the people, and instead consider us a bunch of ignorant rubes who need to be told to shut up and stand quietly by while their betters rule the nation.

Crime Doesn’t Pay: Business Owner Fires on Robbers, Killing 2, Police Say

Things went horribly wrong for the four men who tried to hold up a Harlem restaurant-supply shop on Thursday afternoon… The four men burst into Kaplan Bros. Blue Flame Corp. around 3:00 p.m. and things went downhill quickly for them:

“I’d do it again if I had to.”

Those were the first defiant words out of no-nonsense businessman Charles Augusto Jr.’s mouth yesterday as he came back to work less than 24 hours after opening fire with his trusty shotgun on four robbers — killing two of them.

The four men had picked the wrong shop — and the wrong man — to mess with. And they would have known it had they read the prophetic words from Dante’s “Divine Comedy” written in marker above the door: “Abandon all hope all ye who enter here.”

The thugs entered a world of hurt when they barged into Augusto’s Harlem restaurant-supply shop, Kaplan Bros. Blue Flame Corp., Thursday afternoon, pulling out a 9mm pistol and pistol-whipping an employee as they demanded cash.

“I told them there wasn’t any money. ‘Take your gun, put it in your pocket, and go home.’ They had a chance to leave,” Augusto said.

But they didn’t listen.

So Augusto, 72 — known to most as “Gus” — channeled his inner Dirty Harry and pulled out the Remington shotgun he had hidden under his desk for 20 years. He opened fire three times, peppering all four men with buckshot.

“I did what I had to do,” he said. “It wasn’t my choice; it was their choice.”

The wounded men tried to run but didn’t make it far.

The man armed with the pistol, 29-year-old James Morgan — who had a long rap sheet with nine prior arrests — took the first shot directly to his face and made it only as far as the shop door before crumpling dead to the ground.

A second man, Raylin Footman, 21 — who had a prior arrest for robbery and a relative who was a cop — made it across 125th Street before collapsing. He’d died by the time he was taken to a hospital.

Good shooting, Gus.

I wonder how long it be before the usual suspects show up and start protesting this guy for protecting himself and his employees?

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